On Friday, January 1, 2016 at 10:12:49 AM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Thursday, December 31, 2015 at 11:09:33 PM UTC, Dave Ludlow wrote:
On Thu, 31 Dec 2015 00:36:17 -0800 (PST), Dawlish
wrote:

Very little chance of this model-proposed cold from the east advancing towards the UK now. I'll perhaps be sure enough to say with 80% certainty this evening. I'm afraid the few who proposed the cold's advancement to the UK in early January are very likely to be mistaken. The difficult part of forecasting with any kind of high level of accuracy at 10 days, is knowing when not to forecast. Most of the time, you'll be guessing and will be wrong. I'm still not certain enough, this morning, to present an opposite forecast to cold at 10 days - there's not quite the consistency I'd like to see and hints are still there - but I may well be confident enough this evening..

NB However, a SSW appears to be in the process of forming, so cold *may* head our way later in January. (Noting that the relationship between the development of SSWs and the establishment of cold from the east, in the UK, is not in any way a certain one).

http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_s...rent_merra.pdf

I don't think there's been much 'sticking your neck out' in this
thread, the most I can find is from me i.e.

"Whether or not the real cold actually makes it across the North Sea and Channel seems to be an
open question though... but they [the models] all predict that it may do.

It will be interesting to see at least a short break in the incessant south westerlies, if it comes off.

Lots of ifs buts and maybes there - but the models were correct in
that they predicted confidently that the cold outbreak would reach
Denmark and the North Sea, and they still do. Would it get further was
the big question and they were never unanimous about that.

But now, here in the south, the first half of January seems to be
heading for a perhaps slightly cooler repeat of December...

--
Dave
Fareham (W)

Yes, the threat of that cold at 10 days has gone with the charts of the last 24 hours. Looking more mobile again.

But what's that coming over the ECM and gfs hill? It's a possible Northerly outbreak at T+240. This one's worth watching. Models had begun to suggest the possibility this morning.