On Tuesday, 22 December 2015 14:31:34 UTC, Dawlish wrote:
Actually closer than T+240 on both the gfs and GEM, with both showing a rise in pressure to our East over the Baltic. However, nothing as yet on the ECM, so no agreement.

The present zonal train has to end sometime. That proposed pressure rise to our east is the first sign of anything at T+240, or closer, for two weeks.

There does seem to be some consensus of less mild NW flow on the T+240 tonight, even to some extent in the ensembles.