In message , Col
writes
On 13/01/2016 19:27, Dawlish wrote:
**In 10 days time, on Saturday 23rd January 2016, the UK will be
under a zonal weather regime. Our weather will have an Atlantic source
and it will be controlled by a large European high pressure system. **

The colder weather of this week and into next won't last long.

Good luck with that one!

I regularly read the Model Output thread on TWO and the gist I am
getting from that is that over the past week or so the models hwve been
flip-flopping like mad are hard pushed to call anything at 5 days, let
alone 10.


That's certainly not how I read the 12Z operational runs of the ECM and
GFS. Though zonality will probably have returned to the north by T+240,
in the south it looks as if we'll still be close to the centre of an
anticyclone, with what little wind there is from the south or
south-east. Though the air will by then be very mild aloft, as shown by
the 850mb temperatures, I'd expect there to be a marked inversion, with
temperatures near the ground still decidedly chilly.

Of course, based on recent model performance it could all change by the
next run. In fact based on the recent runs I'm rather surprised that
Dawlish's tests for consistency from run to run have been met.
--
John Hall
"Honest criticism is hard to take,
particularly from a relative, a friend,
an acquaintance, or a stranger." Franklin P Jones