On 13/01/2016 21:05, Dawlish wrote:
On Wednesday, January 13, 2016 at 8:04:48 PM UTC, Col wrote:
On 13/01/2016 19:27, Dawlish wrote:
**In 10 days time, on Saturday 23rd January 2016, the UK will be under a zonal weather regime. Our weather will have an Atlantic source and it will be controlled by a large European high pressure system. **

The colder weather of this week and into next won't last long.

Good luck with that one!

I regularly read the Model Output thread on TWO and the gist I am
getting from that is that over the past week or so the models hwve been
flip-flopping like mad are hard pushed to call anything at 5 days, let
alone 10.

--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

Judge the forecast at outcome. Not now! I'm not in the slightest bit interested in what is being said on the model output threads on forums.

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When you posted this my reaction was the same as John's. A higher degree
of risk than usual. One of the problems being greater day to day
fluctuations in the models, a trickier than average synoptic pattern and
the UKMO holding a different view much of the time. Of course that one
isn't part of your formula as it doesn't go out to T+240.
I suspect you will be right but noticed you didn't *forecast* much in
December when there was bigger cross model support at that range.
Dave