On 15/01/2016 00:46, Dave Ludlow wrote:
On Thu, 14 Jan 2016 16:29:24 -0800 (PST), Tudor Hughes
wrote:

On Thursday, 14 January 2016 23:26:33 UTC, Dave Cornwell wrote:
Further to the earlier thread on this. A most interesting read on TWO
in the Model Output section of the forum, especially for a psychologist
rather than a meteorologist! Basically because of the uncertainty in the
various models at the moment...

Interesting and amusing post, Dave, and I'm glad it doesn't happen to any serious extent on this group. The TWO lot seem to think a model should have stout moral fibre and not give in to the Axis of Evil, i.e. westerlies. It also seems to be a case of being told what you want to hear, such as "England are going to win the World Cup". We tend to anthropomorphise everything, even steam engines (Thomas the Tank Engine, but surely he has a driver?)), but doing it to computer models seems particularly barmy. I don't think I'd like TWO.

That made me chuckle, crazy people!

I don't suppose Hurricane Alex, heading north through the Azores any
day now, is making things easier for the models. They probably don't
know what to do with a Hurricanes heading north through the Azores in
mid January!

First Atlantic January Hurricane since 1955, it seems.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/Jef...?entrynum=3223

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The models of course don't care if they know. They just do the maths and
it is the best solution available given the input. It is interesting
that the "rock solid" UKMO model which was the coldest and therefore the
only one "worthy" of praise has already stopped forecasting the
elongated blocking HP in the Atlantic for Sunday and Monday. Of course
they will all have been erroneous to a degree but none of them failed to
predict a cold snap from Thursday to at least Sunday from a week back
which is more than I could have done by looking at my AWS and the sky!
Dave