On Friday, January 22, 2016 at 7:45:15 PM UTC, wrote:
On Friday, 22 January 2016 19:29:36 UTC, dawlish wrote:

No, Just judge a forecast at outcome, right, or wrong. You know what zonal means, I think, as does everyone on here. What I don't see are the 'indications' of a SSW event that apparently have been there in the models. That's fiction, I'm afraid, unless it was the single outlier of the gfs that Will felt the need to comment upon. Models tonight show zonal at the end of the month, with an outside chance of Northerly pushing further south than is currently shown. I doubt it will, however. Much more likely that zonal will predominate.

Helpful? Probably not.


Paul, are you using just the link you posted back in December for your 'indicator'? At that time you did suggest an SSW appeared to be forming.

Other models suggested otherwise then and those same models suggest an SSW this time...

(Excuse the copy/paste to bottom of this post - I know it's not Usenet protocol but then I'm just using the older post for reference!)

Joe

...Snipped....
NB However, a SSW appears to be in the process of forming, so cold *may* head our way later in January. (Noting that the relationship between the development of SSWs and the establishment of cold from the east, in the UK, is not in any way a certain one).

http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_s...rent_merra.pdf

The gfs/ECM/GEM/JMA at 9/10 days, or out to 16 with the gfs. Nothing on those.