In message ,
Scott W writes
On Wednesday, January 27, 2016 at 9:54:09 AM UTC, John Hall wrote:
In message ,
Scott W writes
Using Netweather estimates to the end of the month I've had a look at
the analogues for my region.

Temperatu
Mild: 7%
Rather mild: 21%
Average: 44%
Rather cold: 7%
Cold: 7%
Very cold: 7%
Seve 7% (Interesting that January 1991 was in there...)

Did they (or you) mean February 1991?
--
The January 1991 analogue.

Ah, now I'm with you.

But with a probability of 7% perhaps safely ignored. Unless there is
something in that ECM run this morning?

Funny you should say that. The 12Z isn't that dissimilar to the 0Z,
but the ECM and GFS are miles apart. However it looks to me that the
ECM's cold snap, should it occur, is unlikely to last long beyond T+240.
--
John Hall
"Honest criticism is hard to take,
particularly from a relative, a friend,
an acquaintance, or a stranger." Franklin P Jones