On Wed, 3 Feb 2016 10:47:19 -0800 (PST), Richard Dixon
wrote:

This is terrific on the meteociel site.

It's essentially the 20 ensembles that are put in rank order to highlight which of those are the most severe - in this case, 10m wind speed (km/hr - bleurgh!) in London:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs...de=11&s ort=1

Essentially shows for each time, the ranked windspeeds across the ensembles.

It shows very nicely on the 8th and 10th how there appears to be potential for quite strong sustained winds in a number of the ensemble members.

Would be nice to include the control and operational numbers on this to see where they sit in the grand scheme of things but I thought this was a great way to show the data.

The base page is he

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs...arte=1&table=1

From which you can choose your location of interest.

One of the ensemble members has a 132 km/hr mean in western Ireland...

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs...mode=11&sort=1

Richard

Thanks for that, Richard. I haven't come across it before. It's a most
illuminating form of visualisation of the data. Careful scrutiny of it
emphasises how futile it is to look at only a single model run (e.g. the
operational run) for times as short as greater than about 48 hours ahead (at
least looking at today's 1200z data).

Fascinating stuff.

--
Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.
http://peakdistrictweather.org