The winter of our "model" discontent
On Wednesday, 10 February 2016 18:42:12 UTC, Dave Cornwell wrote:
One thing I've noticed with this ridiculously mild winter is that the
computer models haven't thrown out any of their usual "surprise" bitter
cold scenarios. Usually they have a few distant projections of -12C
850's and bitter easterlies - such charts being referred to as "eye
candy" by the coldies.
The thing I've found interesting this winter is the frequency of forecasts of mid-Atlantic ridges that - at times - have threatened to join up with Greenland (or to a lesser extent, Scandinavian highs that have been few and far between in ensembles let along the poor man's ensemble).
None of that this winter and the models seeming
to verify the mildness quite accurately.
The good news is the excesses of the Express have been kept to a minimum
because of this!
I suspect Nathan Rao is signing up to the dole until he can find some thunderstorms or heatwaves to pay the bills...
Richard
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