On Saturday, 13 February 2016 10:47:56 UTC, Alastair wrote:
On Saturday, 13 February 2016 10:08:33 UTC, Len Wood wrote:
Today I am taking my U3A Weather and Climate group on a visit to the high priesthood. That is, the Met Office HQ in Exeter.

They are an enthusiastic bunch of pensioners and will no doubt have many questions for the employees incarcerated there.

I will be interested to know how much leeway the operational meteorologists have to intervene when the model forecast for 12 hr or less ahead is going wrong.

Does anyone on this ng have a question for me to ask them?

Len
Wembury, SW Devon

I not sure that anyone you talk to will be able to answer this, but here it is anyway.

Is it true that the computer models assume that the boundary layer is warmed by convection and not by the absorption of radiation from the surface by greenhouse gases?
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1)You are right. No one there to answer that in any detail except, they are keen to publicise their 1.5 km model which takes more account of topography.

My answer: warming or cooling by surface fluxes according to surface type and synoptic situation (cloud) and worked out to give an energy balance at the surface. Pollution in terms of particles and greenhouse gas concentrations are fixed on the short time scale.

2)As regards probability forecasts, precipitation probability is all you get as you see on there website.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/w...u#?tab=fiveDay

They don't seem keen to go further. The TV weather presenters talk about confidence, as we do, having looked at ensembles.

Len, after a third trip to UKMO HQ on Saturday.

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