"JohnD" Wrote in message:
I see that the UKMO 6-30 day forecast has become decidedly less pessimistic
for mid-March on (for East Anglia at least). The temperature summary for
instance now seems to have changed over the past day or so from essentially
more of the same to 'Temperatures are likely to be mild at first, but
probably oscillating around normal later' for mid-month on, with next
weekend as the possible turning point.

Have any of you model watchers picked up what seems to be quite a
significant and potentially welcome change in outlook? Is it just a slight
change in the balance of probabilities, ie 60/40 one way to 60/40 the other
and so probably pretty uncertain still, or something better founded?

The way I read it was that the models are indicating a brief
milder spell in a week's time, and the trend after that is not at
all clear. With that in mind, I think the only change after day
10 is an increase in the signal-to-noise ratio :-)

--
Freddie
Pontesbury
Shropshire
102m AMSL
http://www.hosiene.co.uk/weather/
http://twitter.com/PontesburyWx for hourly reports


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