On 10/03/2016 15:31, Graham P Davis wrote:
On Thu, 10 Mar 2016 14:55:02 +0000
Norman Lynagh wrote:

The March issue of 'Physics Today' contains a review article titled
'Is the Melting Arctic Changing Mid-Latitude Weather?'. The
conclusion is that the jury is still out.


There was a similar discussion over sixty years ago. In 1950 , an
article in Weather by CEP Brooks explained why the argument that a
pre-war, fast-warming Arctic should have decreased upper winds had been
proven to be incorrect. In fact, the upper winds increased. This led to
large slow-moving or stationary waves in the upper atmosphere. It's
perhaps significant that the period of Arctic warming ended with a
series of severe winters in Europe.

The current re-hash of the same pre-war(?) idea that a slowing of the
jet-stream will result from differential warming between the Arctic
and the Tropics may be wrong again. Those scientists who ignore history
are doomed to repeat it. However, their ignorance of atmospheric
dynamics may again save their forecasting bacon as far as the weather is
concerned. Perhaps two wrongs will again make a right as they did
during the first half of the twentieth century..


While its still available on catchup. Sunday, BBC News channel half hour
piece in slot This Week, next week.
A Prof Mark Macklin of Aber Uni on the welsh equivalent of the EA , not
using historical references for river/rain flood levels and so erroneous
return period calculations.
Very similar in the Solent area for marine flooding preventative
measuures. The EA and related agencies will not use properly researched
historic records. So they end up with "computer calculated" return flood
heights for 500 year period, that do not reach the level the Solent got
to in 1924, let alone the great Channel storms of 1703 and 1824, all
within 500 years. Scientists or astrologers?