On Monday, March 28, 2016 at 11:42:15 PM UTC+1, Martin Dixon wrote:
In message
Paul Garvey wrote:

On Monday, March 28, 2016 at 12:12:36 PM UTC+1, Martin Dixon wrote:
In message
Tudor Hughes wrote:

On Friday, 25 March 2016 11:08:57 UTC, Lawrence Jenkins wrote:
On Friday, 25 March 2016 10:22:49 UTC, Graham P Davis wrote:
In the March issue of Weather, the 'Weather news' section has an
article headed 'Will climate change delay transatlantic flights?' Now
I assumed from the title and the prevailing thoughts on the effects of
climate change that, contrary to the CEP Brooks article in Weather in
1950, the differential warming between the Arctic and the Tropics would
weaken the jet-stream, this delay to flights would be referring to
eastbound flights. On reading the article, I see my assumptions were
wrong.

The article says that eastbound flights will speed up due to the
strengthening jet-stream but west-bound ones will slow. It says that
unless emissions are cut, jet-stream winds along the flight route
between Heathrow and JFK are 'predicted to to become 15% faster in
winter, increasing from 77 to 89km/h, with similar increases in the
other seasons.'


--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks. [Retd meteorologist/programmer]
http://www.scarlet-jade.com/
I wear the cheese. It does not wear me.
Posted with Claws: http://www.claws-mail.org/

And?


We all know the globs warmed ever so slightly and well within the wild
swings of the past. Are you saying only human produced C02 can reach
the parts natural forcing's can't reach.

Anyway if the jet stream is strengthening even though the extremes
between heat and cold is very so slightly less how do you know
another mechanism is not at work that is strengthening the jet stream
and causing a slight warming.

You have hijacked this thread with your stupid unhelpful remark.
Thus we now have the insufferable Martin Dixon banging on trying to
show us what a clever-clogs he is and all the usual trolls having
their two penn'orth and all of it nothing to do with the subject
which is the apparently paradoxical increase in strength in the jet
with global warming. This is far too detailed, far too boring, needs
actual meteorological knowledge. Let's talk GW, meteorology for the
non-meteorologist. Any ignorant herbert can join in. What a rabble.
This place needs a chairman.

Tudor Hughes

You mean a moderator? Or a censor, to remove all non politically
correct posts. If you can't stand your science being questioned, it
isn't very good science. We need to admit there s a lot we don't
know. Forget the arrogant posturing, it is no disgrace to admit we
don't know. And that is the first step towards increasing our
knowledge. If we assume we do know, and adopt an entrenched position,
they it is much harder to learn and progress. Most likely the
consensus is correct, but I need to be convinced, and so far I am not.



--
Visit my weather station at
http://homepage.ntlworld.com/m.dixon4/Cumulus/index.htm

Believing is the start of everything to come. - Hayley Westenra

I'm with you on that. hughes would like to *be* the moderator Martin
and has tried it many times before. Unfortunately he can't be.

We should all expect our views to be challenged. The real difficulties
on here happen when views are challenged and challenged robustly, then
the person is not allowed off the hook (nothing wrong with that). Then
some can't bear it, throw their toys out of the pram, become
foul-mouthed. dreadfully abusive and threaten others. That's what we
can do without.

I like your phrase' 'Most likely the consensus is correct'. I'd just
go 'very highly likely correct'. I'm not convinced either, which is
why I feel Alastair's position of 'AGW is a fact' utterly wrong.
However, I'd say I am 99% convinced. About where the consensus
probably is and my conviction has increased with the evidence in the
last 5 years from being around 95% convinced.

Yes, it's true I like to play the devil's advocate a bit. But it is a
good thing to do, since as you say, the more robust the science is the
better. Those who run scared, who are afraid to debate the issues
don't help at all when it comes to getting to the truth. I'm still
not sure what the truth is, don't get me wrong, I'm probably, in fact
I'm sure I'm less convinced than you are Paul. I would love to see
some solid proof one way or the other, but it seems that is not
forthcoming, at least not yet. It seems to me it all depends on what
happens in the next few years. If the warming continues, once this el
nino is over, the consensus is right. If it doesn't, or if cooling
happens, it is wrong. We should know within the next 5 years.

There are some who say that because 90mumble percent of academics
believe something, so should I. I can never swallow that, and I treat
it with the comtempt is deserves. It is appealing to the herd
instinct. You have to convince me, based on real world observations
and physics, that you have a case. Nobody has done that, on either
side of the argument. But I would hate to play the political game of
counting those who believe one way or the other. Science is about the
scientific method, and voting is no part of that.


--
Visit my weather station at
http://homepage.ntlworld.com/m.dixon4/Cumulus/index.htm

Believing is the start of everything to come. - Hayley Westenra

You can't have proof, Martin. No-one can. If proof is required wait for that, the problems will have happened a century ago and science still be waiting for that proof. Science simply doesn't deal in proof. Scientists deal in weight of evidence to support a theory. If something happens that the theory does not predict. we'll need a new theory.

Whether you currently believe that the tidal wave of existing evidence points to the theory being correct, is up to you.

Calendar's theory, published in 1938 has proved accurate - so far. If someone comes up with a better theory for why our planet is warming, I'll happily listen, but the evidence to support it is *huge*. It's not a herd instinct to support that. It is sense. If you wish to go against the 'herd' of scientists who accept the theory of gravity, jump from your roof. Hope your ankles and wrists are strong. 😀😀😀

Or you could believe in a flat Earth. I'm with the 'herd' who don't.