On Thursday, May 5, 2016 at 2:48:56 AM UTC+1, Dave Ludlow wrote:
On Wed, 4 May 2016 21:56:17 +0100, "Eskimo Will"
wrote:


"Len Wood" wrote in message
...
Here we go again.
Forecast max temperature underestimated again for Plymouth Mt Batten in
these conditions.
Forecast sunny all day. Correct.
Forecast max temperature 13°C. Wrong.
Actual max temperature 15.2°C.
Max temperature in my garden Stevenson screen 17.0°C.

Can't understand why UKMO model always messes up in these conditions.
Surely having forecast cloudless conditions, it is comparatively easy to
forecast max temperature?

Haytor was wrong too. Forecast max. 12C actual max. 15C.
Ernie Gold is moving in his grave right now!

It's just the same over here in Fareham, they or their models seem
unable to grasp that although Southampton Water and the Wallington
River (into Fareham) are tidal, we are not on the beach! So yet
another day was forecast at least 2 deg C too low - par for the course
over the last week on every day when we get at least sunny intervals.

I just adjust upwards these days, it's still irritating though.

--
Dave
Fareham (W)

A couple of years ago I kept records of actual maximum in May, and forecast maximum (2 days ahead). The average discrepancy was 3C! It's always worst in Spring, but strangely Whether the wind was on or offshore made little difference.

All this fades into insignificance compared to David Braine's surf forecasts, I mean where does he get this stuff from!!?? A big swell has been forecast for the north coast for days, and it was very good yesterday.

Yesterday he persisted with the c**p, for today he said there'd be "1-2ft on the north coast - little for the surfers". The fact that he pointed out the deepish depression over the Atlantic, prior to saying there'd be virtually no surf, suggests he hadn't put his brain into gear. Looks like a superb wave today, 6-9' & clean, about as good as it gets as it's combined with an offshore wind. http://magicseaweed.com/Sennen-Surf-Report/4/ In fact even better than yesterday. Currently 10' at Sevenstones. Still a good wave for Friday, before it tails off.

You can't beat Magic Seaweed, essentially GFS with human input (local knowledge) & common sense applied.

Graham
Penzance