On Sunday, June 5, 2016 at 7:06:23 PM UTC+1, Norman Lynagh wrote:
Graham Easterling wrote:

On Sunday, June 5, 2016 at 4:32:00 PM UTC+1, haaark wrote:
On Sunday, 5 June 2016 15:59:03 UTC+1, Jumper wrote:
Over the past two months, why have we had slack areas of Low or High
pressures over the UK and Europe? Also, the over the last two months,
the jetstream has been acting strangely with it even going retrograde (E
to W). April felt like March and May felt like April, with the winds
mostly coming from the northern half of the compass. Even the first
three days of June felt like April, with it being warm in the day, and
cool in the mornings and evenings. Why?

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Yes, odd indeed. I think it's a lot to do with the persistent 'cool blob'
in the N. Atlantic, which the MO tells us may be v. persistent. Us OAPs
will remember it as the 'cold pool' of the mid-1960's. The effect was much
the same-dire summers down the E. coast with July max of about 10C if the
sun didn't come out, but drier and somewhat sunnier on the W. coast. This
summer I believe is going to be a rerun of 2015 (and 1965!)

May was actually warmer than normal over virtually the entire country.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/...aries/anomacts (Choose
2016/May/1981-2010 anomaly) Additionally most places had normal or just above
normal sunshine and near or below normal rainfall (except in a few spots).

Yes, it has been very cool start to June in East Anglia E & SE England, but
not in many other places, many western places have been sunny & warm.

Lastly that 'cool pool' is nothing like as cold as at this time last year,
and there is a belt of warm water now to the west of the UK. Latest SST map
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reursst.gif is very different to this time
last year.

Graham
Penzance

At the Panel Discussion on climate change at the Royal Met Soc AGM last month
one of the panellists said that modelling is predicting that the North
Atlantric will reamin cooler than average for the next 5 years.

--
Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.
http://peakdistrictweather.org

Well, given the nature of the projection (I wish they'd use something a bit more equal area, rather than using a projection resulting in massive area exageration over 50 degrees north - but that's the geographer in me!) the majority of the N Atlantic, probably around 80%, is currently warmer than normal here - data from NOAA. http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/rtg_l...maly_oper0.png

I remember the MetO, about 2 months, ago basing their 'long range forecasts on the basis that the central/eastern part of the N Atlantic was colder than normal and likely to stay that way. Well it's certainly changed, the area SW of Ireland which was cold is now very warm, over 15C at this time of year is very unusual. The recent blocked pattern has led to some significant changes.

Locally, the offshore SST is 2C higher than this time last year, which is a Good Thing! The SST in Mount's Bay is currently around 15C, which for early June, is the highest for a fair few years. http://www.channelcoast.org/data_man...e_data/charts/

Graham
Penzance Lovely evening - bit of mist on the north coast? http://www.sennen-cove.com/harbourcam.htm