"Darren Prescott" wrote in message
...
"Will Hand" wrote in message
...
It's the right time of year for it. Late winter/early Spring can often
bring
easterlies.
It's tantalising as the 0z GFS continues the cold theme. To my untrained
eye it all hinges on developments around T+144, which is at the limits of
reliable forecasting IMO....

IF low pressure does move SE'wards over Scandinavia then the GFS outcome
looks quite plausible, but until the other runs start backing it up I'm
going to make a determined effort not to be suckered into believing it.

After all, the recent performance has been dire. I'm sure we all remember
the last time this setup was shown at T+168 and nothing came of it.
Equally the GFS ensembles less than a week ago had this weekend's colder
interlude as a one-day-wonder, but as time's gone by the ensembles now
show -5C 850 air lingering for four days over London.
There is perhaps one thing in the favour of the GFS runs namely the fact
that this easterly type of setup is most prevalent in late winter and spring
as Will Hand has pointed out in another thread. I will be quite surprised if
it materialises for the reasons you state.

I wasn't just the GFS that showed the current colder interlude as a one day
wonder though as quite a few of the other models were very similar (e.g
MetO).

Alan