"Darren Prescott" wrote in message
...
"Will Hand" wrote in message ...
It's the right time of year for it. Late winter/early Spring can often
bring
easterlies.
It's tantalising as the 0z GFS continues the cold theme. To my untrained eye
it all hinges on developments around T+144, which is at the limits of
reliable forecasting IMO....

IF low pressure does move SE'wards over Scandinavia then the GFS outcome
looks quite plausible, but until the other runs start backing it up I'm
going to make a determined effort not to be suckered into believing it.

After all, the recent performance has been dire. I'm sure we all remember
the last time this setup was shown at T+168 and nothing came of it. Equally
the GFS ensembles less than a week ago had this weekend's colder interlude
as a one-day-wonder, but as time's gone by the ensembles now show -5C 850
air lingering for four days over London.


Sensible stuff Darren, it all hinges on the behaviour of the upstream jet coming
out of the States later this week, a strong southerly jet west of Greenland
would amplify a northern high and we would then get our easterly after that. The
chances have to be higher this time I would say due to climatological support.


Will.
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