On Tuesday, July 12, 2016 at 3:24:20 PM UTC+1, Freddie wrote:
Graham Easterling Wrote in message:

Haha i guessed this post would be about point probability
forecasts before I read it!! :-)

At 08:00 this morning we had a shower which dropped 3.4mm in 10mins. We are surrounded by showers, with little gap inbetween. The radar demonstrates this. The MetO Fax chart for 06:00 shows a trough overhead, there is clearly deep convection but . . .

Chance of rain for Penzance @ 08:00 & 09:00 still shown as 5% (it's now 09:20 by the way - so it's happened). If anyone involved could explain that, I'd be interested.
It's an automated forecast with no manual input. I would hazard a
guess that the model wasn't forecasting showers at the grid point
nearest you at that particular time. Why it wasn't forecasting
them is the question that needs an answer...

--
Freddie

Yes, that's the point Freddie. The forecast was showing a showery front, the radar was a mass of showers streaming in from the NW, so it's how the model came up with a 5% chance of rain that's the mystery, when the models where clearly predicting plenty of showers.

Still, some very pleasant sunshine this afternoon following a heavy shower 11:30.

Graham
Penzance