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Old February 15th 05, 08:47 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
Alastair McDonald Alastair McDonald is offline
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First recorded activity by Weather-Banter: Jul 2003
Posts: 1,027
Default February much warmer!


"Graham" wrote in message
...

Yes, I do....
Global Warming, and it's effect on weather patterns, oh, and the melting

ice
might have somethign to do with it! lol.

The point I was trying to make was why is the February mean over a
degree warmer when the December mean is almost unchanged from it's
1961-90 average.


I think Danny is correct, it is the Arctic sea ice. The seasonal temperatures
tend
to lag the solar intensity by a couple of months because of the effect of sea
surface temperatures being controlled by the heat capacity of the oceans.

In the past, the formation of ice in the Arctic ocean sealed the heat from
the oceans in and produced a continental type surface where the temperatures
could drop. Now, the lower concentrations of ice mean the seal is not secure
and so Arctic air does not cool to the same extent. These days, the stronger
sun in February means the temperature then exceed those in December
and January.
Here are the ice concentrations for today, three years ago, and six years ago
http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/seaice/an...h.20050214.gif
http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/seaice/an...h.20020214.gif
http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/seaice/an...h.19990212.gif

The darker blue is 95% concentration, the lighter green is 75% conc.

HTH,

Cheers, Alastair.