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Old October 5th 16, 10:12 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
Weatherlawyer Weatherlawyer is offline
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Default The reason for elongations in the Southern Indian Ocean

Keeping off the grass is not something that means a lot to cyclones at Cape Horn. That is because it doesn't matter what the pressure is on Antarctica, it has to get the hell out of the way of a twin cored cyclone.

If you have been following the dispensations of BoM's Southern Hemisphere you will be familiar with the recent patterns of cyclones going ashore. And how they relate to derechos and volcanics.

It is unusual for long standing periods to occur when such cyclones reach the coast. For reasons best known to god, things have changed.

Notice how that huge system between Australia and Antarctica develops into what appears to be a blocking low on Saturday the 8th of October, 2016.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/...ANTI/track.dat

What has happened is that the cyclone hitting the Cape has gone ashore, all the way across the continent causing the South African cyclone to deepen and draw out the High into itself.

The development along the coast from the air between 100 to 120 East is the most interesting thing. It all takes place at the same time as the compression of the Scandinavian High drops it 10 millibars from 150 to 140 (which is quite a lot of high pressure all things considered.) As far as that is possible to know:

Of course this is all speculation based on forecasts. Fortunately there is little input from the flowerpotmen in this series, so we can rely on generalities out that distance, for a given reliance on generalities.