On 18/12/2016 18:22, Graham wrote:


:The SST anomalies still point to a preponderance of cyclonic westerlies
:for the UK so another mild winter seems most likely. The pattern looks a
:bit more favourable for more meridional patterns than in recent years
:but a north-westerly reaching us from the East Greenland Sea would not
:be anywhere near as cold as it was fifty years ago when there was at
:least twice as much ice there as there is now.

I did say when Scott did his winter forecast on the 1st that I fancied
another mild or very mild December and looking at the charts see no
reason to change that view.
Despite a chilly night last night the mean still way up here at +2.6c
Yet another green Christmas, I wonder how many of them we've had in the
last 50 years


Graham


Well a green Christmas, at least for where most people live, is way more
likely climatologically than a white Christmas (even when they try to
make it as likely as possible by using the absurd requirement of a
single flake of snow to fall). The snowy landscapes on Christmas cards
go back to the little ice age when white Christmases and cold winters
would have been far more frequent. December 2010 and March 2013 are very
much the exception rather than the rule.

Mind you, by the time they have finished all the rampant housebuilding
and fracking in the SE, a green Christmas will be near-impossible
because the countryside will likely have been trashed. Time to try for a
Met Office job again.