Usual Duplicitous Crap From UKMO
In message ,
Lawrence Jenkins writes
Weather forecasts show rain
If you mean the map of the SE on the Met Office website, that's for one
particular time, probably this afternoon when only rain is expected. A
snapshot for early evening instead might well be plastered in snow
symbols.
and weather warnings show snow.
The weather warnings are for the POSSIBILITY of snow. They do not say
that it WILL snow. You need to read the accompanying screed, which says:
"Warning: Rain moving eastwards across the south of the UK today may
turn to snow in places. The most likely scenario is for 2 to 4 cm to
fall above about 100 m elevation across parts of southeast England with
1 to 2 cm to low levels in places. However, there remains a small chance
of snow settling more widely with 5 to 10 cm at low levels this evening,
leading to disruption to road, rail and air services as well as
interruptions to power supplies and other utilities - this more likely
across East Anglia and southeast England. Across Wales and western
England snow will more likely be confined to high ground.
""Chief Forecaster's assessment: As a developing area of low pressure
moves east across southern Britain today there is potential for rain to
turn rapidly to snow as cold air is drawn in. However, there remains
uncertainty over the track and intensity of this system, meaning that
confidence is low in the amount and extent of any snow."
So what is it to be? You can't have your kayak and heat it. However
that doesn't stop UKMO thinking they can.
They are obviously very uncertain. Tomas Schafernaker was more frank
about that uncertainty in his broadcast after the 1pm news on BBC 1 than
I can recall ever seeing before just a matter of hours before the
(possible) event. He came up with a figure of 5 cm of snow for the SE,
but admitted that that was a pretty arbitrary figure chosen because it
was halfway between the two possible extremes of none and 10 cm.
If it DOES snow in SE England, it seems to be most likely between about
6 and 8pm, give or take an hour or so.
--
John Hall
"One can certainly imagine the myriad of uses
for a hand-held iguana maker"
Hobbes (the tiger, not the philosopher!)
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