On 29/01/17 23:10, Adam Lea wrote:
On 29/01/2017 19:50, Graham P Davis wrote:
OK, I know the answer from specialists would be "no" but I wonder what
the locals in S America would say. Sea-surface temperatures along the
coast are as much as 4C above normal. I don't see why this wouldn't be
causing all the usual catastrophic symptoms of an El Nino such as the
death of local fish. In the past, El Nino events would have been defined
by the state of the waters along the coast, not by anomalies way out in
the Pacific.

http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/oper/...maly_oper0.png


http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/an....1.26.2017.gif

It looks like the warmest anomalies are restricted to the Nino 1 and 2
regions. Nino 3.4 (for which the anomaly is used as a benchmark) looks
to be near neutral. The classic El Nino signature has the warm anomalies
way out to about 160W. What do the trade wind anomalies look like? It is
changes in the Walker circulation which cause the changes in weather
patterns around the globe and resultant destruction.

I know I'm nobody's grandmother but thanks anyway for trying to teach me
to suck eggs. From my original comments, I thought it should be clear
that I realise it's not an El Nino as currently described. However, I
strongly suspect that the locals who originally described the events and
named them "El Nino" and "El Viejo" would have said this is the former.
They were only concerned with local effects and were unaware of any
global ramifications. Fifty years ago, when I first became aware of
these events, the important area was not out to 160W but in the region
normally affected by the Humboldt Current.

As to your question about the atmospheric circulation, it is still
weakly "La Nina" (to use the modern term) with local weak westerlies
aloft and minor easterlies at the surface.

Is a "classic" El Nino the one described by the new kids on the block
during the recent few decades or the one known by the local inhabitants
for hundreds, perhaps thousands of years (though obviously not by that
name before the conquistadores arrived)?

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks. [Retd meteorologist/programmer]
Web-site: http://www.scarlet-jade.com/
There are more fools than knaves in the world, else the knaves would
not have enough to live upon. [Samuel Butler]