On Wednesday, 1 February 2017 10:06:27 UTC, Graham P Davis wrote:
On 29/01/17 19:50, Graham P Davis wrote:
OK, I know the answer from specialists would be "no" but I wonder what
the locals in S America would say. Sea-surface temperatures along the
coast are as much as 4C above normal. I don't see why this wouldn't be
causing all the usual catastrophic symptoms of an El Nino such as the
death of local fish. In the past, El Nino events would have been defined
by the state of the waters along the coast, not by anomalies way out in
the Pacific.

http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/oper/...maly_oper0.png


Here's a description from "The Ever-Changing Sea" by David B Ericson and
Goesta Wollin, published in 1971:

+++++
The coast of Peru provides a famous example of how a change in
atmospheric circulation may alter living conditions drastically. During
exceptional years a current of warm, less saline water creeps southward
along the coast of Peru, and may even pass Callao. This current is
called /El Nino/, the Christ Child, because it arrives near Christmas;
but it brings no blessings. On the contrary, disaster follows in its
wake. As the warm water mixes with the normal, cold coastal waters,
marine life from the lowest forms of plankton to fish suffer mass
mortality. Dead fish, littering the beaches, decompose and befoul both
the air and the coastal waters. Hydrogen sulphide is released in such
quantities that it blackens the white lead paint of ships, a phenomenon
known as the 'Callao Painter'. The guano birds, because of the dearth of
fish, die or leave their nests, so that the young perish, bringing
enormous loss to the guano industry.
+++++

I find that description difficult to believe unless the account is by someone who has absolutely no idea what affects animals.

To start with fish swim away from problems. Some get caught out and some are chased inshore by the usual suspecrts who having been mildly poisoned go away.

The lack of predators leaves the catch of small fry to die in the usual way without being eaten. te stench being a visitation that is cyclical due to heating which causes prolific fish food to spread out and use up the oxygen.. The resulting algal growth can produce red tides.

All in all the hiatus causes death to an year's nestlings, giving their prey a respite. The islands affected have been ruined by the USA and other countries stealing their wealth: the guano. I dare say uncontrolled quarrying has caused the death of more nestlings than can be replaced so that coral shorelines are dying.

Recently, low-level westerly wind anomalies have strengthened in the
Pacific to the east of 160W. This is probably responsible for the
anomalous warming. Whether it has produced the symptoms described above,
including the south-flowing El Nino, I've no evidence.

I too suffer from lack of evidence but unlike you I actually think about what I believe.

We have been in an increased period of vulcan activity for a year and more; this will temporarily be the cause of anomalies.