On Friday, July 7, 2017 at 6:53:09 PM UTC+1, Graham P Davis wrote:
On 07/07/17 15:00, d wrote:
On Fri, 7 Jul 2017 14:54:00 +0100
Metman2012 wrote:
On 07/07/2017 09:42, d wrote:
On Thu, 6 Jul 2017 19:09:56 +0100
Will Hand wrote:
On Thu, 6 Jul 2017 18:32:07 +0100
I'm wondering if part of the issue is the presentation. The media
broadcasters
should have been aware that many places were to remain dry and present the
story as such. As this is what the models were saying. It is very unfair to
blame the models, that is what upset me with Spud's original post.

The BBC don't make up the charts themselves, the met office provide them.
Either the computer models provided the charts or they were altered manually
by someone who didn't believe the computer. Either way they got it badly
wrong. Never mind no thunderstorms, there was barely any cloud. Thats not
a minor slip up, its a total forecasting failure.

I was looking at the weather radar pages yesterday and there were quite
a lot of thunderstorms over London and over East Anglia (going by the
lightning page). You don't say where you live, but I live on the western
edge of the warning area and we got no rain, but having read the
forecast I wasn't really expecting any. Similarly I never heard anybody
saying 'storms everywhere'. Who was it who forecast storms everywhere?
It was a low probability, high impact event and so the forecast was
broadly correct IMHO.

Storms turned up in the north london area last night heading east. However BBC
weather both on the online chart and the broadcast were showing pretty
comprehensive rain cover for a line roughly stretching from oxford in the east
to ashford in the west via london coming up from the south coast for 9am
yesterday on wednesday evening. If they can't get it even close to correct only
12 hours in advance then their modelling has serious problems IMO.


As I said, theirs wasn't the only model to get it wrong. Also, the
forecaster on in the early morning TV made sure to play down the event.

Several days before the event, the bulk of the rain was forecast to
reach the London area for Friday, but the models kept backtracking each run.

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks. [Retd meteorologist/programmer]
Web-site: http://www.scarlet-jade.com/
“Like sewage, smartphones, and Donald Trump, some things are just
inevitable.” [The Doctor]

I think the model output is often remarkably good, the issuing of warnings not so, and the wording often careless.

My main issue with the MetO is that they often seem blissfully unaware of the actual weather, and never look beyond the model.

It's been foggy for hours at Land's End, yet the forecasts has relentlessly shown good visibility, even for now. This sort of thing has become so common it's the norm, to my mind down to over reliance on models and lack of human common sense & a few basic checks to make the model output somewhere close to reality.

This, apparently is the Good Visibility now http://www.landsendweather.info/

In fact this is Scilly at sea level http://www.scillyman.co.uk/Lowertown_Cam.html so I see little hope of imminent improvement.

Sometime this afternoon they'll cotton on & change the forecast - just as it clears, based on recent attempts.

Still, with the warmth & humidity it's great weather for being in the sea. Cornwall is largely watersports rather than buckets & spades these day (that's more Torbay) so a bit of mizzle has little impact to the number on the beach sea http://www.sloop-inn.co.uk/live-surf...ve-web-camera/ (camera scrolls around.

(Just my bit to add to everyone elses!)

Anyway Yellow warning for swimmers in Cornwall? http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reursst.gif

Graham
Penzance