On Saturday, 8 July 2017 12:03:22 UTC+1, Richard Dixon wrote:
On Thursday, 6 July 2017 09:53:08 UTC+1, wrote:

And this isn't the first time. If all their expertise and their very
expensive supercomputer can't even get a forecast right 12 hours ahead then
whats the point of them?

They're trying to forecast the popping up of convective cells using mathematics. Often the wet and windy weather we get in the UK that is forecast hasn't even formed before it's forecast. Using entirely mathematical equations. It's a miracle they get close - and for that we should be thankful.

Out of interest, do you come on here to praise weather forecasters when they get it right?

Richard

Hi Richard

By a strange coincidence I've also noticed the "popping up of convective cells" this morning across the southwest of England. Nothing overly dramatic, but the forecasting of the isolated showers was very well forecast by the NWP produced by the Met Office. I am always having a go at the Met Office, as most people here will attest, and I wasn't exactly clear of the underlying cause, so well done Met Office.

http://www.xmetman.com/wp/2017/07/08...west-dartmoor/

As regards the lightning and thunderstorms of the other day, I think the Met Office did very well with their yellow alert. Medium level thunderstorms are just as dangerous as those from classic low level CB's. I was on night duty on the 9th of July 1984 at Binbrook and can remember quite clearly the lightning from the castellanus as it tracked north and went on to set York Minster alight.

http://www.xmetman.com/wp/2017/07/06...ndery-showers/

I still don't like how the whole alert/warning/impact service that they run works in practice. I'm not clear for instance how and when they would raise the alert state to amber or red for any particular storm. It would no doubt be for the intensity of the rain, rather than for the intensity of the sferics.

Bruce.