I usually don't rise to this kind of message (I usually post on another newsgroup) but today I will. Spud, I saw your message first earlier this morning - at that time I nearly replied with two words - 'look west'. You clearly checked the radar imagery and correctly saw the showers to the east of London. Just as forecast yesterday. To the west, the reactivated front was already spreading rain east across southern England. As forecast yesterday. Careful viewing of yesterday's forecasts would have revealed that the rain in the SE was basically going to come from the front moving east rather than from the showers.

Here in north Surrey it has rained for the last 4 hours, quite heavily in the last hour. It is soon to clear. You do not reveal where you live.

Freddie, I am surprised that you agree that it was a poor forecast. Maybe you have other reasons to say this.

On a final note, I think the various forecast models did a great job handling today's abrupt change in weather / synoptic type, especially as it is a rather unusual transition. I highlighted today's situation back on Saturday when I was forecasting (not for the Met Office) - I recall that they were projecting two pptn areas converging - just as they have actually done. I think that's pretty impressive. I agree with Will that communication of uncertainty is important and any clients who received forecasts from me last weekend got a hefty dose of uncertainty about today and tomorrow.

Today is certainly worthy of comment but for the abrupt change in synoptic type and of temperature in the SE.

Regards Julian
Julian Mayes
Surrey
In the rain.