Freddie, I am surprised that you agree that it was a poor forecast. Maybe you have other reasons to say this.

Julian, I took Spud's transcription of the forecast for the morning at face value - I didn't actually see the forecast itself. I was focussing on what may go wrong with a forecast of an upper trough causing development of either the western polar front or the eastern elevated moist air. I apologise if I caused offence.

Not at all, I was genuinely interested in your reasoning. I think Graham summed it all up well in his contribution. I had 7mm in the end falling in 6 hours of fairly continuous rain. Clearly there was an issue of uncertainty on the track of the showers to the east and whether they would skim past over the sea and miss the South East. Ideally this should be communicated in forecasts of course.


Cheers Julian