On 05/10/17 11:27, N_Cook wrote:
Reviewing last night's plots, the next time I'll look at the necking in
the near real-time geopotential plots and minimum of the (don't know
what the term is) dam-km product , for the minimum value

A lot of interesting stuff on this paper, about the meteorology and how
the French (in English) handled the 1987 Great Felling

15–16 October 1987 - American Meteorological Society
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/...O%3E2.0.CO%3B2


(hyphen break)

"... Forecasts issued by DMN gave very strong and repeated warnings to
the media, security agencies, and specialized users.
...
Three to 4 days prior to the event, (French) forecasts mentioned the
possibility of a severe storm. ..."

but if the numerical model outputs had been slavishly observed, those
warnings could have neen rescinded.


Met Office computer forecast was also going for storms on the Sunday.
When someone asked me in the pub on Monday evening what the weather
would be like on on Friday at Wentworth - he was going to the golf
tournament - I warned him that there'd be storm force winds. In each
successive run of the computer forecast during the week, it looked as
though it was chickening out and if I'd seen the guy on Wednesday
evening, I'd've told him not to worry!


--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks. [Retd meteorologist/programmer]
Web-site: http://www.scarlet-jade.com/
“Like sewage, smartphones, and Donald Trump, some things are just
inevitable.” [The Doctor]