On Thursday, October 5, 2017 at 5:07:37 PM UTC+1, John Hall wrote:
In message , N_Cook
writes
Reviewing last night's plots, the next time I'll look at the necking in
the near real-time geopotential plots and minimum of the (don't know
what the term is) dam-km product , for the minimum value

A lot of interesting stuff on this paper, about the meteorology and how
the French (in English) handled the 1987 Great Felling

15–16 October 1987 - American Meteorological Society
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/...)004%3C0517:PO
AESO%3E2.0.CO%3B2

(hyphen break)

"... Forecasts issued by DMN gave very strong and repeated warnings to
the media, security agencies, and specialized users.
...
Three to 4 days prior to the event, (French) forecasts mentioned the
possibility of a severe storm. ..."

but if the numerical model outputs had been slavishly observed, those
warnings could have neen rescinded.


Isn't it also the case that the Met Office forecasts were expecting the
strongest winds to be over northern France, so that there's not
necessarily any significant difference between what the French and the
British forecasters were expecting.
--
The interview with Jack Scott on Thames News says as much about the storm force winds staying across the Channel. I think Michael Fish has said the same in interviews over the years.