Updated set of Jason-3 curve-fit results
Linear
Y= cm of sea-level as per Aviso output and x=0 for year 2000
Y = 1.446098 + 0.331877*x
R^2= 0.978086
RMS Error = 0.244821
projecting into the future
year 2030, 11.402 cm SL rise
2050, 18.04 cm
2100, 34.63cm
Update for extra 6 weeks of data, to 17 Dec 2017
Y = 1.433052 + 0.333468*x
R^2= 0.977762
RMS Error = 0.247845
projecting into the future
year 2030, 11.437cm SL rise
2050, 18.11cm
2100, 34.78cm
Exponential
Y = 1.948854 -6.880730*(1-Exp(0.033013*x))
R^2 = 0.981571
RMS Error = 0.227110
projections
2030, 13.593 cm
2050, 30.919 cm
2100, 1.819 metres
update
Y = 1.974884 -6.192150*(1-Exp(0.035713*x))
R^2 = 0.981796
RMS Error = 0.226836
projections
2030 , 13.860 cm
2050 , 32.709cm
2100, 2.156 metres
Quadratic
Y = 2.023609 + 0.204265*x + 0.005656*x^2
R^2 = 0.981740
RMS Error = 0.226064
projections
2030, 13.242cm
2050, 26.377cm
2100, 79.010cm
Update
Y = 2.055140 + 0.196003*x + 0.006093*x^2
R^2 = 0.981960
RMS Error = 0.225811
projections
2030, 13.419cm
2050, 27.088cm
2100, 82.585cm
Fractional Indicial, approx 4/3 fractional indicial power
Best fit on R^2 and RMS, and same ranking of Lin,Exp,Quad,Indicial
Y = 2.252107 + 0.104773*x^1.355666
R^2 = 0.981919
RMS Error = 0.224954
2030, 13.058cm
2050, 23.313 cm
2100 , 56.15 cm (21.5cm more than linear , the official standpoint)
Update
Still best fit on R^2 and RMS
Y = 2.283709 + 0.097257*x^1.380886
R^2 = 0.982094
RMS Error = 0.224969
2030 , 12.941cm
2050, 23.861cm
2100 , 58.478 cm (23.7cm more than linear , the official standpoint)
I'll update the graphic, with the new fitted curves, same URL
http://diverse.4mg.com/jason1+2+3r.jpg
later today. With the new scaling of the J-3 output, the superimposed
legends around the J-3 component might be a bit clearer .
Also I'll revisit the Jason2 data from what it was in 2016, when the
previous serious upshoot/overshoot occured. Add the J-1 data and run the
curve-fits for the then data, and also the now fixed data for that
period. Because of the 2 steps forward , one step back and vice-versa
business, to better gauge what the effect of the "recent" data becomes
in a years time, especially for the exponential century-projected situation.
Also I'll revisit the ENSO compensator and GRAVE weighing Greenland from
space data, to see how the end of 2017 situation compares with 2016
situation.