Thread: Sea Level Rise
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Old February 21st 18, 09:39 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
N_Cook N_Cook is offline
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Default Sea Level Rise

Updated corrected set of Jason-3 curve-fit results including the latest
data from 17 December 2017, previous data outputed up to 2017.911,
associated plot

http://diverse.4mg.com/jason1+2+3r.jpg

Linear
Y= cm of sea-level as per Aviso output and x=0 for year 2000
Y = 1.446098 + 0.331877*x
R^2= 0.978086
RMS Error = 0.244821
projecting into the future
year 2030, 11.402 cm SL rise
2050, 18.04 cm
2100, 34.63cm
Update for extra 6 weeks of data, to 17 Dec 2017
Y = 1.414689 + 0.335684*x
R^2= 0.976966
RMS Error = 0.254395
gradient gives the linear MSL rise of 3.357 mm / year
projecting into the future
year 2030, 11.485cm SL rise
2050, 18.199 cm
2100, 34.983cm

Exponential
Y = 1.948854 -6.880730*(1-Exp(0.033013*x))
R^2 = 0.981571
RMS Error = 0.227110
projections
2030, 13.593 cm
2050, 30.919 cm
2100, 1.819 metres
update
Y = 2.002894 -5.56543*(1-Exp(0.038595*x))
R^2 = 0.981615
RMS Error = 0.229845
projections
2030 , 14.153cm
2050 , 34.771cm
2100, 2.605 metres

Quadratic
Y = 2.023609 + 0.204265*x + 0.005656*x^2
R^2 = 0.981740
RMS Error = 0.226064
projections
2030, 13.242cm
2050, 26.377cm
2100, 79.010cm
Update
Y = 2.088926 + 0.187200*x + 0.006555*x^2
R^2 = 0.981759
RMS Error = 0.228941
projections
2030, 13.604cm
2050, 27.836cm
2100, 86.359cm

Fractional Indicial,
Best fit on R^2 and RMS, ranking linear, exp, quad, indicial
Y = 2.252107 + 0.104773*x^1.355666
R^2 = 0.981919
RMS Error = 0.224954
2030, 13.058cm
2050, 23.313 cm
2100 , 56.15 cm (21.5cm more than linear , the official standpoint)
Updated best fit on
Y = 2.317755 + 0.089566*x^1.408787
R^2 = 0.981838
RMS Error = 0.228446
2030 , 13.106cm
2050, 24.481cm
2100 , 61.164cm (26.181cm more than linear , the official standpoint)