On 22/02/2018 10:39, N_Cook wrote:
The second down image shows
http://diverse.4mg.com/jason2+enso_overlay2.jpg
the overshoot end of 2016, artifact of the filter or whatever, no longer
present in that period of the J3 plot.
Also a graphical interpretation of shifting and comparing the ENSO plot.
Jason2 , some spot data as outputted 24 Apr 2017, up to Jan 19, 2017, as
in that above image
2016.5, 7.32cm
2016.75, 7.17
2016.997, 7.61
2017.052, 7.71
Jason3, revisiting the same period
2016.5, 7.13cm, -0.19
2016.75, 6.97 , -0.2
2016.997, 6.95, -0.66
2017.052, 6.86, -0.85
note the 2mm long-term apparent offset betwen J2
and J3
So curvefitting on J3 adjusted downwards for end of 2017, the same same
degree as end of 2016, nullifying the "recent" sharp upswing
Y= 2.211603 + 0.114799*x^1.324879
2030, 12.609cm
2050, 22.669cm
2100, 54.462cm
compared with
as-is without reducing the perhaps overshoot end of 2017
Y = 2.317755 + 0.089566*x^1.408787
2030 , 13.106cm
2050, 24.481cm
2100 , 61.164cm
So best guess projection to 2100 is between 54cm and 61cm global
sea-level rise. So little difference in the fis of the different
curve-types, maybe the next J3 output, the indicial curve will be
surplanted.
For Jason3 data output of 05 Feb 2018, publically available about 10 Apr
2018 fitted to concattenated Jason1+2+3 data back to 2003.
Best fit exponential, R^2 = 0.983876
1.995164 -5.721914*(1-Exp( 0.037837*x))
2020 8.468cm
2050 34.218cm
2100 2.479m
Best fit linear
1.407961 + 0.336498*x , R^2 = 0.97938
year Sea Level
2010 4.772cm
2050 18.232cm
2100 35.057cm
Best fit quadratic, R^2= 0.984018
2.080588 + 0.189329*x + 0.006446*x^2
year Sea Level
2020 8.445cm
2050 27.662cm
2100 85.473cm
Best fit indicial power, best R^2= 0.984105
y= 2.311576 +0.090898*x^1.403844
year Sea Level
2020 8.406cm
2050 24.373cm
2100 60.688 cm
For anyone in or near Hampshire, public talk series i run
Tuesday 17 April 2018, Prof Ivan Haigh, NOC Southampton : Sea level rise
and coastal flooding: past, present and future
further details
http://www.diverse.ip3.co.uk/scicaf.htm