On 12/04/2018 11:06, N_Cook wrote:
On 22/02/2018 10:39, N_Cook wrote:
The second down image shows
http://diverse.4mg.com/jason2+enso_overlay2.jpg
the overshoot end of 2016, artifact of the filter or whatever, no longer
present in that period of the J3 plot.
Also a graphical interpretation of shifting and comparing the ENSO plot.

Jason2 , some spot data as outputted 24 Apr 2017, up to Jan 19, 2017, as
in that above image
2016.5, 7.32cm
2016.75, 7.17
2016.997, 7.61
2017.052, 7.71

Jason3, revisiting the same period
2016.5, 7.13cm, -0.19
2016.75, 6.97 , -0.2
2016.997, 6.95, -0.66
2017.052, 6.86, -0.85
note the 2mm long-term apparent offset betwen J2
and J3

So curvefitting on J3 adjusted downwards for end of 2017, the same same
degree as end of 2016, nullifying the "recent" sharp upswing
Y= 2.211603 + 0.114799*x^1.324879
2030, 12.609cm
2050, 22.669cm
2100, 54.462cm

compared with
as-is without reducing the perhaps overshoot end of 2017
Y = 2.317755 + 0.089566*x^1.408787
2030 , 13.106cm
2050, 24.481cm
2100 , 61.164cm

So best guess projection to 2100 is between 54cm and 61cm global
sea-level rise. So little difference in the fis of the different
curve-types, maybe the next J3 output, the indicial curve will be
surplanted.




For Jason3 data output of 05 Feb 2018, publically available about 10 Apr
2018 fitted to concattenated Jason1+2+3 data back to 2003.
Best fit exponential, R^2 = 0.983876
1.995164 -5.721914*(1-Exp( 0.037837*x))
2020 8.468cm
2050 34.218cm
2100 2.479m
Best fit linear
1.407961 + 0.336498*x , R^2 = 0.97938
year Sea Level
2010 4.772cm
2050 18.232cm
2100 35.057cm
Best fit quadratic, R^2= 0.984018
2.080588 + 0.189329*x + 0.006446*x^2
year Sea Level
2020 8.445cm
2050 27.662cm
2100 85.473cm
Best fit indicial power, best R^2= 0.984105
y= 2.311576 +0.090898*x^1.403844
year Sea Level
2020 8.406cm
2050 24.373cm
2100 60.688 cm


For anyone in or near Hampshire, public talk series i run
Tuesday 17 April 2018, Prof Ivan Haigh, NOC Southampton : Sea level rise
and coastal flooding: past, present and future
further details
http://www.diverse.ip3.co.uk/scicaf.htm


6-weekly update of Jason1+2+3 data from aviso.altimetry.fr data to 16
Mar 2018, publically accessible 13 May 2018. x= year minus 2000, Y= cm
height by Aviso assessment.
Various curve-fit types ranked by R^2 quality of fit, best fit still the
indicial power curve and best estimate so far , of 57cm global mean sea
level rise to year 2100. Officialdom is still showing linear "fits" to
the Jason data, downplaying to about 35cm rise to year 2100
Determinations still falling , but exceedingly unlikely to return to
linear as best fit of curve type. The linear rate here (0.335159
cm/year) does near enough agree with the Aviso reference assessment in
3.32 mm per year considering only subset of 51 datapoints used by me to
cover 2003 to 2018.
Sequence of best-fits of the 4 types, all indicial power curves falling
indices, for the 6-weekly asessments this year, out to 2100 61.2cm,
60.7cm and this latest 57.1cm

linear
Y = 1.419263 + 0.335159*x
R^2= 0.981084
2030 11.474cm
2050 18.177
2100 34.935


exponential
Y = 1.952271 -6.730993*(1-e^(0.033595*x))
R^2=0.984702
2030 13.662 cm
2100 1.889 m


quadratic
Y = 2.029890 + 0.202368*x + 0.005775*x^2
R^2 = 0.984857

2030 13.298 cm
2050 26.585
2100 80.016


Indicial power
Y = 2.263276 + 0.101848*x^1.365590
R^2 = 0.985011

2030 12.858cm
2050 23.547
2100 57.107