The graph of this data can be found at:
http://www.scarlet-jade.com/science/...e-change/#data


Graham,

Eyeballing your graph,
http://www.scarlet-jade.com/wp-conte...to-2018_05.png
it seems that the 11 year running mean has been rising steadily from ~0.4 in 1970 to ~1.0 in 2010. That is an increase of 0.15 per decade. To get to an increase of 1.5 K will take about 30 years bringing us to 2040.

The Guardian is reporting that a "Leaked UN draft report warns of urgent need to cut global warming":
https://www.theguardian.com/environm...global-warming
It says "Human-induced warming would exceed 1.5C by about 2040 if emissions continued at their present rate ..."

Cheers, Alastair.