On Monday, June 25, 2018 at 4:24:37 PM UTC+1, Freddie wrote:
On Monday, 25 June 2018 15:36:50 UTC+1, wrote:
On Mon, 25 Jun 2018 14:17:53 +0100
N_Cook wrote:
On 25/06/2018 12:44, wrote:
On Friday, June 22, 2018 at 11:03:30 AM UTC+1, wrote:
Has it all be diverted north due to the jet stream or are there just fewer
and/or weaker weather fronts forming in the atlantic this year? I notice
when
has front has crossed us in the last month or so its been a pretty feeble
affair.

I have been wondering the same. No proper rain in Horsham since April. This
is following months of dull damp weather from August last year to April with
hardly any anticyclonic conditions. I don't get why the weather these days
seems to get stuck in a rut so often.


A lot of maths on a planet-scale in this
http://www.pnas.org/content/early/20...00110.full.pdf
but basically , The Rockies and/or the Himalayas can force the northern
jetstream into a quasi-resonant, self sustaining sinusoidal structure,
following its own tail, for a time.

Is that something enhanced by climate change or something that happens from
time to time anyway? It does seem to be happening more often from my rather
short time frame.
I'm going to stick my neck out and say that it has next to nothing to do with climate change - just the current state of play. Winter (and Summer) of 1947, the summer of 1959 and the winter of 1963 are all examples of when the planetary flow got stuck in a configuration in western Europe - and they all predate the concept of global warming and climate change to some degree. Maybe the temperatures we are experiencing today area degree warmer than maybe they would've been back then with all other things equal - but that's insignificant. If you want to see a definitive effect of climate change then you need to look elsewhere - maybe somewhere like Svalbard.

--
Freddie
Ystrad
Rhondda
148m AMSL
http://www.hosiene.co.uk/weather/
https://twitter.com/YstradRhonddaWx for hourly reports (no wind measurement currently)

Rather agree. The trouble is that virtually everything gets blamed on climate change, which is of course a genuine worry for the future.

During the stormy end to the last century, with very high Atlantic fringe gale frequencies, climate change was highlighted as the cause. Always seemed counter intuitive to me. This century, the low gale frequencies (from Cornwall to Shetland) indicate rather more blocking. Probably all part of a broader cycle, largely independent of climate change.

SSTs seem to be rather flavour of the month for affecting our weather. However, as far as I can see, the Atlantic SST anomalies have been broadly similar for a few years now. Yet we have had the nrmal variety of weather types over those years. Changes, such a the high SSTs near the UK now) largely down to recent weather, rather than vica versa.

It's very hard to isolate the changes that are due to climate change, except obvious changes like the reduction in arctic sea ice & the affect on the climate of places like Svalbard.

Very complicated & difficult to predict, the weather, which is rather how I like it.

Graham
Penzance