Sea Level Rise
Y = year (minus 2000) , x is cm SLR in Aviso.Altimetry terms for Jason-3
output up to 25 May 2018, publically outputed approx 23 July 2018,
for various optimised curve fits and concattenated 54 datapoint data for
Jason1+2+3, ranked in terms of R*R
Linear
Y= 1.440160 + 0.332706 * x
R^R=0.981621
year Sea Level Rise , cm
2020 8.094
2050 18.075
2100 34.71
Exponential
Y = 1.885012 -8.885318*(1-Exp(0.027178*x))
r*r = 0.984062
year Sea Level Rise ,cm
2020 8.301
2050 27.58
2100 127.585
Quadratic
Y= 1.949468 +0.222901 * x +0.004728 * x^2
r*r = 0.984207
year Sea Level Rise , cm
2020 8.298
2050 24.914
2100 71.519
Best still on R*R goodness, Indicial
Y= 2.182871 +0.121504 * x^1.306716
r*r = 0.984447
still about 4/3 power, projection still falling
year Sea Level Rise , cm
2020 8.273
2050 22.35
2100 52.073
Y = year (minus 2000) , x is cm SLR in Aviso.Altimetry.fr terms for Jason-3
output up to 14 June 2018, publically outputed approx 08 August 2018,
for various optimised curve fits and concattenated 56 datapoint data for
Jason1+2+3, ranked in terms of R*R, each time requiring adjustment of
the immediately preceeding datapoints as they come out of the 6-month
filter and pass into the permanent Jason3 curve.
Still on downward cycle, perhaps next public output or successor will
return to upswing cycle and a bounded projected range.
So far the best curve fit range of SLR to year 2100 is between 61.164 cm
Y = 2.317755 + 0.089566*x^1.408787 ,output of 17 December 2017
and latest output to year 2100 is 50.521
Y= 2.154097 + 0.128932*x^1.287097 , output of 14 June 2018
for 14 June 2018 data
linear
Y = 1.445252 + 0.332125*x
R*R= 0.982125
year Sea Level Rise
2020 8.087
2050 18.051
2100 34.657
(note the 0.332125 gradient in cm terms is the same as 3.32 mm/year
for the Aviso Reference figure for 1993 to latest, for the linear "fit" ,
so my limited to 56 datapoint sampling , compared to hundreds of the
Aviso processing , gives confidence)
exponential
Y= 1.861540 -9.864524*(1-Exp(0.025029*x))
R*R= 0.984220
year Sea Level Rise
2020 8.27
2050 26.477
2100 112.52
quadratic
Y= 1.921280 + 0.230026*x + 0.004370*x^2
R*R = 0.984354
year Sea Level Rise
2020 8.269
2050 24.347
2100 68.623
Best still on R*R goodness, Indicial
Y= 2.154097 + 0.128932*x^1.287097
R*R= 0.984613
year Sea Level Rise
2020 8.248
2050 21.973
2100 50.521
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