On 18/08/2018 09:54, N_Cook wrote:
Y = year (minus 2000) , x is cm SLR in Aviso.Altimetry.fr terms for Jason-3
output up to 14 June 2018, publically outputed approx 08 August 2018,
for various optimised curve fits and concattenated 56 datapoint data for
Jason1+2+3, ranked in terms of R*R, each time requiring adjustment of
the immediately preceeding datapoints as they come out of the 6-month
filter and pass into the permanent Jason3 curve.
Still on downward cycle, perhaps next public output or successor will
return to upswing cycle and a bounded projected range.
So far the best curve fit range of SLR to year 2100 is between 61.164 cm
Y = 2.317755 + 0.089566*x^1.408787 ,output of 17 December 2017
and latest output to year 2100 is 50.521
Y= 2.154097 + 0.128932*x^1.287097 , output of 14 June 2018
for 14 June 2018 data
linear
Y = 1.445252 + 0.332125*x
R*R= 0.982125
year Sea Level Rise
2020 8.087
2050 18.051
2100 34.657
(note the 0.332125 gradient in cm terms is the same as 3.32 mm/year
for the Aviso Reference figure for 1993 to latest, for the linear "fit" ,
so my limited to 56 datapoint sampling , compared to hundreds of the
Aviso processing , gives confidence)
exponential
Y= 1.861540 -9.864524*(1-Exp(0.025029*x))
R*R= 0.984220
year Sea Level Rise
2020 8.27
2050 26.477
2100 112.52
quadratic
Y= 1.921280 + 0.230026*x + 0.004370*x^2
R*R = 0.984354
year Sea Level Rise
2020 8.269
2050 24.347
2100 68.623
Best still on R*R goodness, Indicial
Y= 2.154097 + 0.128932*x^1.287097
R*R= 0.984613
year Sea Level Rise
2020 8.248
2050 21.973
2100 50.521
I don't know why no updates on this Aviso site
https://www.aviso.altimetry.fr/index.php?
then navigation, as not too obvious
data/
products/
mean sea level
They were about every 6 week updates backdated a couple of months.
The last update was 08 August covering up to 24 June 2018.
Nothing since, 10 weeks, too abrupt an uptrend perhaps, but I'd expect
something to leak out if that was the case ?. A year ago I registered
for their email notifications but nothing ever received.