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Old December 8th 18, 04:15 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
Norman Lynagh[_5_] Norman Lynagh[_5_] is offline
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Default Cornish N coast - 1st damaging swell of the Autumn Winter

Graham Easterling wrote:



For the time of my awareness and monitoring NOAA NWW3 wave model
outputs I don't remember seeing it push anything more than 4m sig
wave heights into the Eng channel beyond the Brest-Newlyn line.


You've missed quite a bit then!

I would say 6m occurs every winter at some time off the Lizard (which
is east of Newlyn)

11m has a return period of 5 years just off Lands End at Sevenstones,
so I should think the 5 year return period in open sea to the south
of Mount's Bay (off Newlyn) is around 10m. Norman is the expert on
return periods.


The once in 50-years Hsig in the open sea south of Mount's Bay is
13-14m so I reckon you estimate of 10m for the 5-year return probably
isn't too far from the mark. Even up at Channel Light Vessel the
50-year return Hsig is of the order of 10-11m so I would think they'll
get up to 6m in most winters.


--
Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
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https://peakdistrictweather.org
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