Another output last Friday on
https://www.aviso.altimetry.fr/en/da...ts-images.html
No wonder anti-climate change bods shout foul in such circumstances.
Usually with these updates, because of the 6-month filter and
seasonality, its a matter of revisiting some of the previous datapoints
as well as the update points.
This time the revisionists had been at work and the whole Jason-3 curve
has been "adjusted" , nothing seen about it in the accompanying notes,
presumably the reason for the paucity of data until the latest 2
updates. So had to revisit all
Jason-3 datapoints.
Creating a transparent masque of the latest data and rescaling+hovering
over an earlier Jason-3 output , it was impossible to align the early
sections of the curves. Also took the opportunity to make transparent
overlay masque of the pixel to time and height conversions plotted out ,
to check for any errors there on my part.
With the cross-over from J2 to J3 data, as used before, gave a linear "fit"
of 3.34 mm/year when rounded. Aviso reference figure is 3.33 now, not
3.32 . Undefined coming out and in of the filters for J2 and J3, over
the cross-over period,
betwixt and between. I'd previously used a mean for the heights in that
period.
Otherwise arbitrarily making the 2 datapoints both 1mm lower,
brought the liner "fit" here when rounded to 3.33 (gradient 0.333).
Retained as part of the suite
of now 68 datapoints for the remaining 3 curve-fit assesments.
Linear
Y = 1.434539 + 0.333266*x
r*r = 0.983702
year Sea Level Rise (cm)
2020 8.099
2050 18.097
2100 34.761
Exponential
Y = 1.86385 -9.780226*(1-e^(0.025191*x))
r*r = 0.985743
year Sea Level Rise (cm)
2020 8.27
2050 26.547
2100 113.528
Quadratic
Y = 1.92383 + 0.229431*x + 0.004391*x^2
r*r = 0.985864
year Sea Level Rise (cm)
2020 8.268
2050 24.372
2100 68.776
Best curvefit still by R*R goodness,
Indicial
Y = 2.15921 + 0.127719*x^1.289983
r*r = 0.986091
year Sea Level Rise (cm)
2020 8.248
2050 22.015
2100 50.712
upward trend again for the likely start of El Nino cycle
Resume of these projections from the Aviso Jason3 updates concattenated
to the Jason 1 and Jason 2 data,
for the best-fit of indicial power curves and global sea level rise for
the rest of the century.
year 2100 using Dec 2017 data , 56.15 cm
data to 05 Feb 2018 to 2100 , 60.7 cm
data to 25 May 2018 to 2100 , 52.1 cm
data to 02 Aug 2018 to 2100 , 49.1 cm
Update to 01 Sep 2018, public output 07 Dec 2018
to year 2100 , 50.7 cm
So between 49.1cm and 60.7cm SLR to 2100, is so far, my halfpennyworth
to this fundamental topic. Well above the 34.8cm of linear "fit".