John Hall wrote:

In message , N_Cook
writes
On 10/01/2019 09:07, John Hall wrote:
In message , N_Cook
writes
On 29/12/2018 17:28, Keith Harris wrote:
My daughter texted me after reading something in the paper
and I could give a balanced answer as to what effect this may
or may not have on our weather and why, but what I couldn't
answer was what causes this warming to occur.. Doing a quick
search and I couldn't find the answer?

Is there a simple answer to this question?

Keith (Southend)


A BBC met bod vague wittering about SSW yesterday evening. GFS
has no trace of any NH SSW out to 15 days. So is the
significance a week or 2 after a SSW, , so a "consequence" of
the 06 Jan 2019 one?


I've read that it takes typically 2-3 weeks for the effects of a
SSW to make themselves felt down in the troposphere. So yes.

So we could reasonedly expect a firming-up of what GFS currently
hints at 2 weeks out, a Beast-from-the-east-2019, of snow for SE
England etc.

It's nowhere near as cut-and-dried as that, as others have commented
(and so have I in another post that I've just made to this thread).


And no doubt there's a lot of 'wishcasting' going on :-)

--
Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.
https://peakdistrictweather.org
twitter: @TideswellWeathr