Firstly as gov.usa still kaput and no NOAA ENSO update on
https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pro...uff/ONI_v5.php
El Nino defined there as 3 consecutive rolling 3 month means, above +0.5
deg C anomaly of SST
for declared El Nino 3.4 sector/sea area 120 to 165 deg ,+/-5 deg
latitude, processed from the twice weekly NOAA global image , by colour
binned pixel counting, a few spot values
2018 Julian day 358, ENSO value +0.8
361, +0.8
365, +0.75

2019
JD 14, +0.75
17, +0.63

I've not bothered processing Nov or early Dec or Early 2019 , but
visually unlikely much less than ENSO 0.5 mean if at all. So unless the
end of Jan shows substantial cooling in that sector, then the next El
Nino has probably started,
with the first of the 3 quarters value as +0.6.

The following, same processing as elsewhere in this thread, is at least
consistent with that.

Gradient of the linear fit of 0.334 cm/yr agrees with the Aviso
reference value of
3.34mm per year, so some sort of validation for the reduced dataset used
for these curve-fits.
https://www.aviso.altimetry.fr/en/da...ts-images.html
70 datapoints for the complete Jason1+2+3 concattenated dataset to 01
October 2018

Linear
Y= 1.426891 + 0.334249 *x
goodness R*R = 0.98329

year Sea Level Rise (cm)
2020 8.111
2050 18.139
2100 34.851

Exponential
Y = 1.861067 -9.801611*(1-e^(0.025179*x))
R*R= 0.985352

year Sea Level Rise (cm)
2020 8.277
2050 26.578
2100 113.624
Interesting that the previous processing gave 113.528, virtually the
same, no idea if any significance to that.

Quadratic
Y = 1.921387 + 0.229779*x + 0.004398*x^2
R*R = 0.985472
year Sea Level Rise (cm)
2020 8.276
2050 24.405
2100 68.879


Best curvefit still by R*R goodness,
Indicial
Y = 2.158700 + 0.127525*x^1.290962
R*R = 0.985697

year Sea Level Rise (cm)
2020 8.256
2050 22.06
2100 50.857

upward trend still

Resume of these projections from the Aviso Jason3 updates concattenated
to the Jason 1 and Jason 2 data,
for the best-fit of indicial-power curves and global sea level rise for
the rest of the century, based purely on the Jason altimetry data .
Oceanographers seem to be comfortable with quoting IPCC projections for
SLR to 2100 but at the same time will only fit a straight line to the
Jason data.
Illogical contradiction, as at some point , they will have to start
fitting a curve, so why not 2017/2018/2019? This processing includes the
heavy revisioning of the J3 data from its start , that was output to the
public 07 Dec 2018.

Global SLR to year 2100 using Dec 2017 data , 56.15 cm
data to 05 Feb 2018 projecting to 2100 , 60.7 cm
data to 25 May 2018 to 2100 , 52.1 cm
data to 02 Aug 2018 to 2100 , 49.1 cm
Update to 01 Sep 2018, public output 07 Dec 2018
to year 2100 , 50.7 cm
Update to 01 Oct 2018, public output 18 Jan 2019
to year 2100 , 50.9 cm

So between 49.1cm and 60.7cm SLR to 2100, is so far, my halfpennyworth
to this fundamental topic. Well above the 34.8cm of linear "fit".