On 18/01/2019 19:43, N_Cook wrote:

I hope you can admit , that to reach such IPCC predictions, there must
be some sort of up-curve at some point.

I'm sure that few in the scientific community believe that the rise in
sea level is _not_ going to accelerate in the coming years. The question
is how you estimate or express that likely rise and its magnitude. My
point is that the only credible way of doing so is by developing a
numerical model and not by blind curve-fitting.

Oceanography is not my field but, unsurprisingly, it looks like several
such models are well under way. Here's the results of one for instance:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-02985-8

(I'm slightly surprised that a Nature article seems freely accessible,
but I had no trouble reading it and there even seems to be a
donwloadable PDF.)