Nick,

There is a paper here that you might find interesting: Evolution of 21st Century Sea-level Rise Projections

https://www.researchgate.net/publica...se_Projections

If the link does not work let me know.



I like the final line,

" As awareness grows that other aspects of the climate system
may be characterized by deep uncertainty as well (e.g., Lenton
et al., 2008), examples of how the SLR and coastal risk
communities have integrated different types of information and
projection approaches over time may prove instructive. "

I'd not found that paper using "meta study" (term for medical multiple
comparison papers only?) as they seemed to have used the
odd term "evolution". Interesting to get a wider handle to my analysis ,
assuming it has some validity.
From their assessed papers of 2016/17/18 only, of Table S1, and taking
my best fit , so far, middle projected SLR of +0.55m on 2000 global
level to 2100.
2016
RCP4.5
4.5
4.5
4.5
2deg C above pre-industrial warming
2017
2.6
2
RCP8.5
between RCP 4.5 and 6.0
2.6
8.5
between 6.0 and 8.5
between 2.6 and 4.5
intermediate low emission
450ppm stabilisation
2.6
2018
1.5 deg APIW
unquantifiable
2 deg


Averaging the quantifiable ones of that lot , giving about 0.55m as
their central estimate , something like 3.9 deg C.

As gov.usa still kaput and no NOAA ENSO update on
https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pro...uff/ONI_v5.php
El Nino defined there as 3 consecutive rolling 3 month means, above +0.5
deg C anomaly of SST
for declared El Nino 3.4 sector/sea area 120 to 165 deg ,+/-5 deg
latitude, processed from the twice weekly NOAA global image , by colour
binned pixel counting, a few spot values
NOAA ENSO , last full SepOctNov Quarter, +0.7
2018 Julian day 358, ENSO value +0.8
361, +0.8
365, +0.75

2019
JD 14, +0.75
17, +0.63
21, +0.41
Despite the tail-off in January, the running 3 month mean for NDJ
quarter will probably above the qualifying value of 0.5