On 02/02/2019 14:19, N_Cook wrote:
Latest projection for global sea level rise , from Jason 3 data
to 29 Nov 2018, public output 02 Feb 2019 on
https://www.aviso.altimetry.fr/en/da...ts-images.html
via best (RMS optimisation) curve-types and curve-fit of 73 datapoints
concattenated to Jason2 and Jason3 data back to 2003.
I suspect the Aviso reference rise of 3.34mm per year has not been
updated (3.34 previous value) as I make the linear slope 0.3377 cm /yr
or 3.37 mm per year and previous
update calculations have come out near enough the same to +/-0.01 mm per
year, nothing like 0.03/0.04 mm . Considering the Jason-3 filtered
(dotted line) output plot is above 8cm for the first time.
Linear
y= 1.394804 + 0.337655 * x
R^2 = 0.983013
year Sea Level Rise (cm)
2020 8.147
2050 18.277
2100 35.16
Exponential
y= 1.925352 -7.599908*(1-e^(0.030612 * x))
R^2 = 0.986048
year Sea Level Rise (cm)
2020 8.343
2050 29.444
2100 156.607
Quadratic
y= 1.996267 + 0.211446*x + 0.005277*x^2
R^2 = 0.986157
year Sea Level Rise (cm)
2020 8.335
2050 25.761
2100 75.91
Indicial
y=2.238733 + 0.108241*x^1.344403
R^2 = 0.986287
year Sea Level Rise (cm)
2020 8.313
2050 23.059
2100 55.107
Upward trend still, for the best curve-fit by R*R goodness factor, by
only a whisker from the quadratic fit.
Resume of these projections from the Aviso Jason3 updates concattenated
to the Jason 1 and Jason 2 data,
for the best-fit of indicial power curves and global sea level rise for
the rest of the century, based purely on the Jason altimetry data .
to year 2100 using Dec 2017 data , 56.15 cm
data to 05 Feb 2018 to 2100 , 60.7 cm
data to 25 May 2018 to 2100 , 52.1 cm
data to 02 Aug 2018 to 2100 , 49.1 cm
Update to 01 Sep 2018, public output 07 Dec 2018
to year 2100 , 50.7 cm
Update to 01 Oct 2018, public output 18 Jan 2019
to year 2100 , 50.9 cm
Update to 29 Nov 2018, public output 02 Feb 2019
to year 2100 , 55.1 cm
So between 49.1cm and 60.7cm SLR to 2100. Well above the 35.2cm of
linear "fit".
Also evidence of the emergence in the Pacific (and so upward global sea
level) of the next
El Nino. Anomaly in degrees C for Nino 3.4 sector/sea area 120 to 165
deg ,+/-5 deg latitude, processed from the NOAA global SST anomaly image.
https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/a....1.31.2019.gif
A few spot values in Jan 2019
Day ; SST anomaly
14 ; +0.75
17 ; +0.63
21; +0.41
24; +0.34
28; +0.36
31; +0.69
Despite the dip late January, the running 3 month mean for NDJ quarter
is probably above the qualifying value of 0.5 , NOAA processed for SON
quarter +0.7 , and OND quarter +0.9 .
https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pro...uff/ONI_v5.php
An updated image of Jason 1 +2 +3 data and image masques to the same
scale , showing linear "fit" and best fit curve, even to the eye a
better fit, visualising balancing of the excursions either side of the
curve.
http://diverse.4mg.com/jason1+2+3_29nov2018.jpg
shame about to the disjunctures between them, but the x,y axes are the
Jason 1 image ones extended on to 8cm and 2020.
For the disjunctures, with no other info about the filters, a matter of
avoiding the last or first 6 months of a mission, compare with the Aviso
Reference image and check the slope of a linear "fit" near enough agrees
with the reference slope , being aware that theirs also includes the
early T/P mission , which I've not included in all this.
Not included the exponential or quadratic curves as only 3 pixels
different at 2010. The original blue gradient lines retained of the 3
images.