I think that rules out linear but not neccessarily exponential.


So for the 70m of SLR for all Antarctic melt, by year 2143, if that
exponential held :-(

Its not so clear cut between quadratic and indicial.
There is so much revisionism going on of these current and past
altimetry measurements , its impossible to compare the history of this
curve-fitting, comparing apples and pears. But chopping back the latest
output of heavily revised data. The only thing set is stone is the GIA ,
precisely the thing that is not set in stone litterally and
figuratively, because of the unknown unknowns relating to the stone
underlying the world's oceans, let alone the known unknowns.
At least with all that revisionism , it makes me more comfortable
starting my processing at 2003.0 , not 1993 the actual start of the
altimetry SLR era, so excluding a decade of the post-Pinatubo years.
Perhaps 0.88m projection SLR for 2100 is about the minimum to expect.
The next Aviso public output is likely to be about 2 months time.
588 datapoints 2003 to 2019.0
Quadratic
y=2.467318 + 0.137333*x +0.010339*x^2
for 2100 , 1.196m

indicial
y= 2.688470 +0.054761*x^1.600479
for 2100, 0.897m

***********
551 datapoints 2003 to 2018.0

quadratic
y= 2.620858 +0.096916*x +0.012545*x^2
For 2100, 1.378m

indicial
y=2.795849 +0.039033*x^1.719367
For 2100, 1.090m

**********
514 datapoints 2003 to 2017.0

quadratic
y=2.794919 +0.049351*x + 0.015264*x^2
For 2100, 1.604m

indicial
y=2.9154 +0.024716*x^1.88367
For 2100, 1.476m

*********
ratioing quad/indicial century SLR, to the latest 1.17/0.882= 1.326
to 2019.0, 1.334
to 2018.0, 1.264
to 2017.0, 1.087
and R^2 values for indicial and quadratic are very close and for the
2003 to 2018.0 processing, by R^2, the quadratic was actually the better
fit compared to the indicial.
Next project is to plot out the Aviso 2003 to latest data and the linear
"fit" and indicial curve.

--
Monthly public talks on science topics, Hampshire , England
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