On Tuesday, March 10, 2020 at 2:21:35 PM UTC, Graham P Davis wrote:
On 10/03/2020 13:04, wrote:
On Tuesday, March 10, 2020 at 11:58:17 AM UTC, Graham P Davis wrote:
On 10/03/2020 09:17, wrote:
First signs of the possibility of a La Nina in the Boreal autumn,
or winter, IMO.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/produc...-fcsts-web.pdf




But the CFS.v2 forecast in that pdf is predicting an El Nino.


It predicts ENSO neutral throughout, with variations during the
period. it never escapes -0.5 - +0.5. I watch the changes from week
to week and the probabilities, on the bar graph. Distinct tick up in
the probability of La Nina this week - TBF, nothing but ENSO neutral
showing, just yet. but these changes always start somewhere. We'll
see.


The particular prediction to which I was referring is on page 25 and
shows the anomalies dropping below -1.0 from ASO. However, I've also
been watching this product for a long time and suspect that rolling a
die would work just as well. :-)

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks. Web-site: http://www.scarlet-jade.com/
“Understanding is a three-edged sword. Your side, my side, and the
truth.” [Ambassador Kosh]
Posted via Mozilla Thunderbird on openSUSE Tumbleweed.

A fairly strong La Nina now very likely through the boreal autumn and winter. Should drop global temperatures. It'll be very interesting to see by how much.