On 10/10/2020 10:36, Graham Easterling wrote:


Going back to a post I made during benign weather in September, with little swell, little wind, & highish pressure, when the sea level was inexplicably well above forecast levels at Newlyn, during the recent unsettled spell the variance has been less, and is currently below predicted levels.

Just to make it clear, I was referring to astronomical predicted levels.

Graham


On the human lifetime scale , rather than Milankhovitch scale , the
astronomical forcings repeating every 8.85 years, 18.6 years etc holds.
But the tides at any one place , that held for 50 years say, and were
predictable, is not necessarily so. In our life time of warming oceans ,
melting ice caps, can easily affect the major ocean currents and local
currents, let alone sea level rise and shallow water effects and then
those local tide characteristics become no longer so predictable.
Although those new changed characteristics may start repeating with
perhaps one 8.85 year repeats only, gradually worsening.

--
Global sea level rise to 2100 from curve-fitted existing altimetry data
http://diverse.4mg.com/slr.htm