Here is a summary of the latest NWP output, for noon (GMT) on Saturday.
Issued 0553z, 30/09/03.

ECMWF: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.gif
Strong northerlies cover the UK, with low pressure over Scandinavia and a
ridge over Iceland. The ridge topples over the UK at T+144, bringing
westerlies to Northern Ireland and Scotland, with northerlies elsewhere. The
Icelandic low moves swiftly SE;wards to lie to the west of southern Norway
at T+168, with strong to gale force NNW'lies and NW'lies over the UK.

MetO: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.html
As with the ECM run, a weak ridge lies to the NW of the UK, with the main
high well to the west of the British Isles. Strong northerlies are affecting
all areas. By T+144, a shallow low near Iceland deepens and moves swiftly
SE'wards over Wales, bringing westerlies for southern as well as central
England and northerlies or NNE'lies elsewhere.

GFS: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1081.gif
A NNW'ly flow covers the UK, due to a ridge south of Iceland and low
pressure to the west of Norway. The ridge moves over Ireland at T+120, with
NW'lies over the UK. 850hPa temperatures range from -7C over NE Scotland
to -1C over Cornwall; eastern areas from NE Scotland to East Anglia lie
under sub 528dam air. Westerly gales then move over the UK at T+144, driven
on by a deep low to the east of Iceland. The low deepens to the west of
Norway at T+168, but the winds ease slightly over the UK. NW'lies and
WNW'lies cover the UK on day 8 as the low fills slowly, followed by NW'lies
for all on day 9 as another ridge begins to topple towards the UK from the
NW. Day 10 sees westerlies from a new Icelandic low.

GEM: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem1201.gif
As with the other runs, a ridge from the Atlantic high lies to the NW of the
UK, this time bringing strong NNW'lies for all. The ridge moves over the UK
at T+120, with NNW'lies persisting for most. 850hPa temperatures range
from -3C over NE Scotland to +1C over Cornwall. T+144 sees strong to gale
force NW'lies for the UK, with low pressure west of southern Norway.

JMA: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1201.html
The Japanese run shows a ridge to the NW and low pressure over southern
Scandinavia, with strng to gale force northerlies for the UK. 850hPPa
temperatures range from -4C over NW Scotland to -1C over SE England. The
ridge moves over the UK at T+144, with WNW'lies for northern Scotland and
Northern Ireland; the rest of the UK lies under NW'lies. By T+168 the UK is
affected by strong westerlies as the result of a deep Icelandic low.

Model overlay charts (GEM/GFS/JMA):
http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/da.../ens/pslv.html
The chart shows high pressure to the west of the UK and low pressure over
Scandinavia, with the 1015hPa isobar running from north to south over the
UK.

In summary, today's runs continue to show a cold spell for the weekend,
followed by a high chance of wet and windy weather for most as the Icelandic
Low moves SE'wards. The MetO run keeps northerlies running for an extra day
at least, but the rest of the runs keep either a NW'ly or westerly flow over
the UK. As ever, more runs are needed.