Using analogue selection for 30-day periods and pattern
sequences for 5-day periods during Aug/Sept, then using
best-fit years, gives us the following for October 2003:

Mean sea-level pressure pattern over the British Isles:
south-westerly

Mean pressure anomaly pattern over the Br.Is:
near normal, perhaps a hint of NW-ly or N-ly

CET -0.3 degC
E&W RR 98%
E&W sss 103%

Verification for September's Not the Long Range Forecast:
Sea-level pressure pattern:
Actual: anticyclonic/southwesterly
Forecast: southwesterly

Anomaly pattern:
Actual: anticyclonic
Forecast: W to NW, anticyclonic in the south
CET:
Forecast +0.2 degC
Actual +0.8 degC

Rainfall:
Forecast 108%
Actual 47%

Sunshine
Forecast 106%
Actual 129%

Philip Eden